Two Start Dates, Two Different Chains
East Africa's first crude exports are close, and the dates are still moving. Our assessment is that the risk now sits in the logistics, not the reservoirs.
Kenya has the nearer date. President William Ruto said on 20 October that oil sales to foreign buyers should begin in December, and the chairman of Gulf Energy has described 1 December as the formal production target.[1] Phase one is planned at about 20,000 barrels a day from the Ngamia and Amosing fields. The energy secretary, Opiyo Wandayi, has said the first phase will rely on trucking.[1]
Uganda's date is less settled, and the sources disagree. In September, Edith Tushabe of the state oil company UNOC said the first shipment was expected to load in December 2026, as reported by S&P Global.[2] S&P Global's report of 27 October says first oil from the Kingfisher field is targeted for the end of 2026, but that first exports will not leave Tanzania until early 2027.[3] OilPrice reported on 8 September that Ugandan officials expect exports in early 2027.[4] We use the later date. UNOC says the pipeline that carries the crude to the Tanzanian coast is more than 90 per cent complete.[4]
Where The Chain Gets Thin
Take Kenya's Phase One. Press reports put about 100 trucks loading each day for a six-day round trip to Mombasa.[1] On those figures, roughly 600 trucks are in the cycle at any moment, before drivers, fuelling and breakdown cover are counted. That number is our arithmetic, not a reported fleet size.
The crude adds a constraint. Turkana crude is waxy and can solidify below 40 degrees Celsius, so it needs heated handling.[1] Uganda's Pearl Sweet has a pour point of 38 degrees and a very high wax content, and refiners need special units to run it.[2] Our assessment is that both streams ask the same discipline of their operators: keep the crude warm and moving from the field to the ship.
Then there is cadence. The reported plan is one tanker a month carrying roughly 750,000 barrels.[1] At 20,000 barrels a day, a month's output is about 600,000 barrels. The two figures do not reconcile exactly. Either production is planned above the phase-one figure, or cargoes will be assembled over about five weeks. We do not know which, and the answer matters. When a cargo is assembled over about five weeks, a week lost on the road moves the sailing date of the whole cargo.
When a cargo is assembled over about five weeks, a week lost on the road moves the sailing date of the whole cargo.
What The Gulf Conflict Showed
S&P Global reports that the pipeline suffered new setbacks when the conflict in the Gulf trapped equipment there, and that developers airlifted parts. Uganda's energy minister, Monica Musenero, said: “We had to airlift.”[3] The same report notes that crude has traded above US$100 a barrel for two months, well above Uganda's US$60 benchmark.[3]
The sea lanes remain disrupted. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 1,228 Suez Canal transits by large cargo vessels in September, 21 per cent more than a year earlier and 39 per cent below the level before the Red Sea crisis.[5] Its Strait of Hormuz brief of 22 October counted at least 28 reported and confirmed attacks on vessels in and around the Strait in October to that date, the highest monthly total since the conflict began.[6] Our assessment is that any project that imports heavy equipment, or sells into Asian refiners, is exposed to these lanes whatever route it takes.
Questions A Manager Should Be Able To Answer
Survey evidence suggests many organisations cannot yet answer them. BSI's October study of more than 1,400 managers found that 54 per cent describe their supply chain risk management as largely reactive, and 37 per cent did not follow a crisis plan during the recent Iran-Israel conflict.[7]
Four questions are worth asking before a first cargo, not after. Where is the single point of failure between the field and the ship, and what is the buffer in days? Who owns each handover, from loading point to truck, truck to tank and tank to vessel? What happens to the cargo plan if the date slips by a month, and who decides? And which inputs arrive by sea routes that are currently contested? These are management questions before they are engineering ones, and they are cheap to ask early.
This is a snapshot as at 31 October 2026. Both dates may move again. The Kenyan figures come from press reports of ministerial and company statements, and the buyer and price of the first Kenyan cargo had not been announced at the time of the report.
M2 Solutions International advises organisations on risk and security across the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific, as management consultancy.
Neil MarshallManaging ConsultantM2 Solutions International FZE